The Process of Evaluating Upperclassmen: Terrence Shannon Jr.
There’s always a lot of discussion surrounding the age of older players in the draft and how that should affect how we evaluate prospects. For me, I think age is important, but I don’t value it as highly as others. I think it’s better to use age for propping up younger players rather than using it to critique older players, although there will always be exceptions for both sides. It might sound obvious, but the important thing when drafting is drafting good basketball players, or players who truly project as good players if you are using age as a larger factor. If a prospect is older but is dominating college basketball in a way that should translate to the next level, then their age shouldn’t matter as much. If they are young, even better, but just find good basketball players.
When looking at older players there are a few things to look at. Are they actually dominant in their role (shooter, defender, etc.) or as a player overall? Have they shown improvement from year to year? If an older player isn’t dominating college basketball when they have extra years of experience over younger players, then that’s a bit worrisome. And if a player hasn’t improved from year to year, what makes you think they’ll get better once they take a step to a much more difficult level? These are all things to consider when evaluating.
The thinking that older players don’t have upside is something I disagree with, especially considering the examples of older players drafted in the past and how they look now. If they showed meaningful improvements from season to season, why can’t they continue to improve after their junior or senior season?
Of course, an 18-year old player is going to (and should) have more leeway compared to a 21-year old, but that doesn’t mean the older player should be overlooked.
Jalen Brunson was an older prospect and a small guard, and he fell too far in the draft. Now, he’s proven to be capable of being an all-star caliber player. Desmond Bane was an older prospect with an unorthodox shot and a bad wingspan, and he’s been one of the best players from his class. Some other upperclassmen that have significantly exceeded expectations are: Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Kyle Kuzma, and more. All of these players showed potential in college and it shouldn’t have been overlooked. Their success can’t be drawn up to ‘outlier skill development’.
There’s a difference between a 19-year old freshman and a 19-year old sophomore. That extra year of experience in college is definitely meaningful. Similarly, there’s a difference between a 22-year old NBA rookie and a 22-year old who has played 3 NBA seasons.
One upperclassman that has shown improvements every year and is currently dominating college basketball is Terrence Shannon Jr. (DOB: July 30, 2000). According to Barttorvik, he currently is 16th in the country in BPM (11.6).
Early in Shannon’s college career, I was not a huge fan of his game because he was extremely limited offensively even though he was able to have an impact on the defensive end. That being said, while Shannon only shot 25.7% (9-35) from 3 his freshman season, he shot 82.9% (87-105) from the FT line, which was promising. The offensive growth from year to year has definitely stood out to me for multiple years now, and the shooting has been somewhat promising for several years as well (more on that later).
Before diving into Shannon’s shooting, let’s discuss some strengths of his game. The sell for Shannon has always been about him being wing-sized with his combination of athleticism, length, and defense. Back at the 2022 NBA Draft Combine, he measured at 6’6.5” (with shoes), 206.6 lbs and a 6’8.25” wingspan.
Anyone who has watched Terrence Shannon Jr. over the years, especially the last few years, knows how dangerous he is in transition. The quickness and ability to accelerate as quickly as he does at his size makes him incredibly tough to stop when he gets going downhill.
As mentioned earlier, it’s important to determine how a player is dominating and if it is in a way that can translate to the next level, or if it is just because of an age (and added strength) / experience advantage. In college, Shannon is one of the best transition players, and while that isn’t going to be the case in the NBA going up against better athletes, he will still be an effective transition player given his above-average quickness even relative to other NBA players.
Along with his transition play, his defense has been his calling card since his freshman season at Texas Tech. Though Shannon’s defensive impact has taken a step back over the last few years, I think some of that was caused by his offensive usage going up. That being said, he’s back to having a big impact on the defensive end this year even with the added offensive load.
One of Shannon’s best defensive traits is his ability to chase players around screens. His screen navigation and ability to stay attached to his man with his footwork and technique are very impressive. He’s also able to use his length to blow up DHOs.
While Shannon’s screen navigation off-ball is extremely good, his pick and roll screen navigation, though still good, does not reach the same level. He just isn’t as good at getting over screens from this position compared to him chasing guys around screens, but he’s still effective. Something that stands out with his pick and roll defense is his ability to recover in the instances he does get hit by a screen. His effort, athleticism, and length definitely help in recovery situations.
Shannon’s size and athleticism will allow him to defend wings on the perimeter at the next level, but his feel on the defensive end probably slots in about average or slightly below average. He has several nice rotations that impact plays in a positive way, but he can also get caught ball watching or taking bad gambles that puts the defense at a disadvantage with him out of position. Minimizing those mistakes and being a bit more consistent with his team defense would go a long way.
Overall, there’s a lot of intrigue that comes with Shannon as a defender because he should be able to succeed in different defensive roles (although he does have flaws on this end). While his best defensive role might be an off-ball chaser, he can also slot in as an on-ball perimeter defender against wings and some guards. Here is a video of Shannon’s on-ball defense. Unfortunately, there aren’t many ‘big wings’ in college, so it isn’t common to see those matchups, but you can see how he defends the point of attack against guards.
Some of Shannon’s dominance on defense does come from having the strength advantage over younger players who haven’t fully grown in their bodies yet. He won’t have the same advantage on a nightly basis, but still being wing-sized with his athleticism is valuable to have. He might not be a dominant defender like Herb Jones, but teams are always looking for more wing defenders. Also, the footwork and technique he has shown when chasing screens is something that will translate.
Now it’s time to move onto the question that has surrounded Shannon’s game, his shooting. Through 10 games this season, his shot has looked really good and he is currently shooting 41.5% (27-65) from deep. Here is a chart that I put together showing Shannon’s 3PT shooting breakdown (stats from Synergy).
We’ll see if he can keep this up throughout the rest of the year, but he doesn’t even need to sustain 40% 3PT shooting to be a successful NBA player.
Over the previous two full seasons, Shannon’s shot had been inconsistent, but had shown enough positive signs for scouts to be optimistic about it going forward. It is a worthwhile bet to say that he won’t be someone teams ignore in the halfcourt consistently. He only shot 32.1% (50-156) from 3 last season, but he shot 38.4% (33-86) from 3 in his last year at Texas Tech the year prior. In that last season at Texas Tech, he actually shot 48.1% (25-52) on C&S 3s, but his overall 3PT% was lower because of his 3PT% on off-the-dribble 3s. At the next level, it’s more likely than not that he’ll be in C&S situations rather than being asked to create for 3s himself, although he is capable of knocking those down as well. Here is a chart showing Shannon’s 3PT C&S numbers since the beginning of the 2021-22 season (67 games).
One small note about his shooting mechanics is that he tends to shoot several shots with poor balance and forward leaning momentum. Some of it is caused by the shots coming from off-movement or off-the-dribble opportunities, but cleaning up the consistency with his lower body on his shot is something that can help bring more consistency with his shot going forward.
An important part of Shannon’s shooting the last couple of years has also been his volume. He is not afraid to let it fly from deep, and his volume has increased each and every year.
Volume can be just as important as efficiency when trying to earn the defense’s respect as a shooter and force them to closeout on you. Luckily for Shannon, his ability to attack off the catch with his first step and downhill ability are strengths.
Similar to the defensive end, Shannon’s feel on offense isn’t great either. He’s shown flashes as a passer that are really intriguing (some can be see in the shooting video), but there are also forced passes, missed reads, etc. that make it more of a work in progress.
One of Shannon’s biggest weaknesses on the offensive end has been his ability to attack right and finish with his right hand around the basket, but he has shown significant growth there over the last 1.5 seasons. Defenses are still forcing him right, but he’s been able to take advantage of that more often this year, which has been promising to see.
Overall, having seen the offensive and shooting growth in the previous years, I actually felt comfortable drafting Shannon last year without a question, and the same stands for this year. Additionally, he has the type of game that should scale back and be a good rotation player for a team as long as his shot is falling at a respectable rate. The combination of size, defense, and athleticism to go along with his offense is enough to justify using a first round pick on him in this class, regardless of his age, because he is not solely relying on skills that will not translate to the next level. If all goes right, there is potential for Terrence Shannon Jr. to be a top 15 player in this class.
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